** Miscellaneous about hurricane season **

As of 05/22/2025 ...

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms. Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes, including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 178 kmh/111 mph or higher).

NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

Read the article at https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season

Posted 06/30/2025

Source: NOAA’s news release dated 05/22/2025

As of 04/12/2025 ...

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be above-normal according to the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project research team. The Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity are predicted to be about 125% of their long-term averages (1991-2020). The forecast team is forecasting 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy of 155 (the average is 123). Because of the anticipated active season, there is a higher than average probability of major hurricanes making landfall. There is a 51% probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline and a 56% probability for a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean.

Read the entire forecast at https://tropical.colostate.edu/2025/04/12/April-TCForecast.html

Posted 06/30/2025

Source: CSU news release dated 04/12/2025

Just like every hurricane season, there are 21 names available for use. In the rare chance all names are exhausted, a supplemental list is tapped.

The names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season are:

• Andrea, Barry, Chantal
• Dexter, Erin, Fernand
• Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda
• Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo
• Melissa, Nestor, Olga
• Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien
• Tanya, Van, Wendy

These names are part of a rotating list used every six years.

Source: Nation Hurricane Center’s Tropical Cyclone Names webpage

Some trivia:

• Rotating Lists: Atlantic storm name lists are maintained by a committee of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and are repeated every six years. This year's list was last used in 2019.
• Names Are Reused, Unless: The exception is if a hurricane or tropical storm is so destructive and/or deadly that the WMO committee votes to retire use of the name. If that happens, then the name is replaced with a new one of the same letter.
• Dexter will take over on this season's list for 2019's Hurricane Dorian, which was the only retired name from that year.
• Van and Wendy are the only two names from this year's list that haven't been previously used for an Atlantic storm.
• The Atlantic list covers just 21 letters of the alphabet, as it is difficult to find enough appropriate names that start with Q, U, X, Y, and Z.
• WMO tropical cyclone naming fact sheet
• WMO Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and the North Atlantic names

Posted 06/03/2025

Powerful winds aren’t the only deadly force during a hurricane. The greatest threat to life actually comes from the water – in the form of storm surge.

Storm surge is water from the ocean that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the hurricane. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides and can increase the water level significantly.

Storm surge combined with waves can cause extensive damage. It can severely erode beaches and coastal highways. The pounding waves can take out boats and buildings. As the waters move inland, rivers and lakes (including BSI canals) may be affected, and add to the rising flood levels. 

Following evacuation orders and routes beforehand can eliminate the personal risk. 

There's a difference between evacuation zones and flood zones. You may not automatically be safe from floods just because you live outside a designated flood zone. That’s because those flood zones relate to potential flooding from rainfall and water bodies such as lakes, rivers, and canals. Evacuation zones are based on storm surge risk and indicate which areas should evacuate when a hurricane approaches.

If you’re interested in learning more about storm surge:

• Read “Why Storm Surge Is Dangerous—And Becoming More Frequent” at https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-a-hurricanes-storm-surge-can-be-so-dangerous/
• Read pages 34 – 36 in the  WINK Hurricane Guide 2025
• Visit the National Hurricane Service’s Storm Surge Overview webpage
• Visit the National Hurricane Service’s National Storm Surge Risk Maps webpage

Posted 06/03/2025

It's crucial to understand the terms used by meteorologists. Here we've compiled a few sources of tropical storm terminology to help you navigate through the jargon and understand the basics of hurricanes.

Explanations of the following commonly-used terms may be found on page 18 of the WINK Hurricane Guide 2025:

• Center, El Niño, Eye, Eyewall, Feeder Bands, Gale Warning
• High Wind Warning, Hurricane Warning, Hurricane Watch, Landfall
• La Niña, Major Hurricane, Right Front Quadrant, Small Craft Advisory
• Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, Wind Shear

Buzzwords you’ll be hearing during hurricane season from FOX Weather are explained at https://www.foxweather.com/learn/hurricane-season-terms-glossary-definition

Definitions of more terms may be found in the:

• National Hurricane Center’s glossary of terms at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
• National Weather Service’s (NHS) glossary of terms at https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php. You can either type in the word you are looking for in the search box or browse by letter.

Posted 06/03/2025

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating BASED ONLY on a hurricane's maximum sustained wind speed. This scale does NOT take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surge, rainfall flooding, and tornadoes.
 

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale estimates potential property damage. While all hurricanes produce life-threatening winds, hurricanes rated Category 3 and higher are known as major hurricanes. In the western North Pacific, the term "super typhoon" is used for tropical cyclones with sustained winds exceeding 150 mph.

Major hurricanes can cause devastating to catastrophic wind damage and significant loss of life simply due to the strength of their winds. Hurricanes of all categories can produce deadly storm surge, rain-induced floods, and tornadoes. These hazards require people to take protective action, including evacuating from areas vulnerable to storm surge.

Category 1: 74-95 mph sustained winds; 980-994 millibars barometric pressure

• Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.

Category 2: 96-110 mph sustained winds; 965-979 millibars barometric pressure

• Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.

Category 3 (major): 111-129 mph sustained winds; 945-964 millibars barometric pressure

• Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.

Category 4 (major): 130-156 mph sustained winds; 920-944 millibars barometric pressure

• Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Category 5 (major): 157 mph and higher sustained winds; <920 millibars barometric pressure

• Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months

More information may be found at:

• About the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (PDF)
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Extended Table (PDF)

Posted 06/03/2025

Source: Copied from the National Hurricane Center’s Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale webpage